On October 4, 2015, 12 Pacific Rim countries concluded negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. If ratified, the agreement could raise member country GDP by an average of 1.1 percent by 2030, and increase trade by 11 percent over the same period, according to an analysis in the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report. To the extent that the agreement has positive spillovers to non-members, detrimental effects—through trade diversion and preference erosion—could be limited. The largest gains in GDP are expected in smaller, more open member economies, such as Malaysia and Vietnam. Exporters in these countries would benefit from lower tariff and non-tariff barriers in large export markets, while other firms stand to gain from stronger positions in regional supply chains through deeper integration.

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